Research 2000 for Daily Kos (7/21-23, likely voters) (5/22 in parentheses):
Ronnie Musgrove (D): 44 (42)
Roger Wicker (R-inc.): 45 (44)
(MoE: ±4%)
Not much movement in Mississippi, but it shows a very close race. And one that will probably stay close the whole way through, dependent largely on how much extra African-American turnout is generated by Obama’s coattails.
How big are those coattails? The same sample says McCain is beating Obama 51-42. That’s up from 54-39 in the previous poll, and more importantly, up from the 59-40 margin from the 2004 presidential election.
The last Rasmussen poll also gave Wicker a 1% margin. Guess it really is a dead heat.
If Afrcian-American turnout is 37% and Musgrove gets 90% of their vote and 25% of the white vote he’ll be at 49%. So he either has to marginally improve his total among white voters or hope African-American turnout goes up 2-3 percent.
I love it that our team is behind by only 51% McCain to 42% for Obama — with a huge 7% undecided. I mean, what’s to decide? Obama is black. He’s BLACK. The Democratic candidate for President is BLACK!
It wasn’t so long ago that any election race in Mississippi involving a black candidate would have yielded an undecided share in the polls of 0 — that is, zero per cent undecided. So it is real progress, seriously, that so many voters in Mississippi are trying to decide if they are ready to cast their ballot for a black man for President. If their minds were closed to the possibility, they would be counted for McCain already. That the voters of Mississippi are undecided at this point means we actually have a chance to win their votes in November.
I know this isn’t a site focused on the Presidential race. But Ronnie Musgrove more than any other Senate candidate will succeed or fail depending on how many white voters decide that the particular black man at the top of the Democratic ticket is O.K.